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CWA # 15, 18 May 2018
India External
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?

  Ann Maria Shibu

Compared to India, China’s entry into the Maldives has been rather late and yet China’s growing ties with the Maldives is giving India the jitters. Chinese presence in Male has been growing steadily ever since Beijing opened an embassy in the capital in 2011

The growing Chinese influence in the Maldives has strained the New Delhi-Male bilateral relations. A section in India believes that the Chinese presence in the Maldives is a security threat to India, given the geographical proximity. Can India afford to lose its neighbour to China?


The strategic importance of Maldives

The global interest in the Maldives due to its geostrategic location in the Indian Ocean. The Maldives is located along major sea lanes in the Indian Ocean and countries like China and Japan are dependent on it for uninterrupted energy supplies. The Maldives can also become a potential Indian Ocean naval base for other countries.

For India, Maldives is critical for its maritime activities such as trade, oil production, fisheries etc. It also has a large exclusive economic zone due to the spread of its islands, some of which are close to India. But the most prominent Indian concern towards Male is the growing Chinese presence in Maldives.

India’s concern in the Maldives: The growing Chinese influence

Compared to India, China’s entry into the Maldives has been rather late and yet China’s growing ties with the Maldives is giving India the jitters. Chinese presence in Male has been growing steadily ever since Beijing opened an embassy in the capital in 2011, 37 years after India set up its mission there. India’s security would be threatened should the Chinese set up a naval base in the Maldives. These concerns are not without any evidence; in August 2017, three Chinese naval ships docked at the Maldives’ capital, setting off panic bells in Delhi.

India’s influence in the Maldives has been declining ever since the Chinese started pursuing what is referred to as the “String of Pearls” strategy. The Maldives is the only state besides Pakistan to sign a free trade agreement with the Chinese. The termination of the $500 million contract given to India, for developing an airport in Male, and the subsequent handing over of the project to China clearly shows the impact of China in the Maldives. China’s influence in the Maldives and South Asia has been increasing tremendously. And India is not in a position where it can afford to lose its influence in the Maldives or any of the neighbouring countries for that matter.

India’s options in its neighbourhood

India perceives China to be a military threat, in view of the border disputes between the two countries. Beijing’s influence in both established international organizations and in new institutions China is setting up, gives Beijing opportunities to hamper Indian interests. China’s equation with Pakistan also puts India in a dilemma. The deepening Chinese influence in South Asia poses a significant challenge to the dominant role of India.

So in this context, the best option available for India is to forge better and deeper relations with its neighbours and align closely with the US to counter China’s moves. The ties between India and its neighbours are far too great to be neglected by either side. India can certainly work harder to build trust and goodwill with its neighbours. In the case of Maldives, the question is whether India should enforce its will on Maldives or continue with its policy of not overly intervening in the affairs of other countries. Either way it is critical for India to take a stance in such a way that India does not lose anymore of its neighbours to Chinese influence.

Ann Maria Shibu is pursuing Masters in International Studies in Christ University, Bengaluru. She is a graduate in Physics, Chemistry and Mathematics from Christ University

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